Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.017842 0.020237 0.022840 0.025882 0.029341 0.033154 0.037679
2025-05-04 0.014317 0.017658 0.021610 0.026637 0.032871 0.040359 0.050057
2025-05-11 0.011992 0.015652 0.020236 0.026412 0.034535 0.044885 0.059120
2025-05-18 0.010453 0.014288 0.019322 0.026431 0.036246 0.049372 0.068347
2025-05-25 0.009142 0.013004 0.018279 0.026040 0.037215 0.052800 0.076325
2025-06-01 0.008335 0.012286 0.017883 0.026424 0.039198 0.057703 0.086750
2025-06-08 0.007509 0.011432 0.017173 0.026231 0.040253 0.061280 0.095486
2025-06-15 0.007052 0.011066 0.017122 0.026981 0.042742 0.067158 0.108237
2025-06-22 0.006273 0.010117 0.016082 0.026071 0.042520 0.068771 0.114321
2025-06-29 0.005723 0.009473 0.015446 0.025725 0.043132 0.071708 0.122769
2025-07-06 0.005135 0.008710 0.014545 0.024844 0.042748 0.072932 0.128378
2025-07-13 0.004941 0.008583 0.014676 0.025700 0.045373 0.079420 0.143703
2025-07-20 0.004709 0.008379 0.014669 0.026338 0.047712 0.085692 0.159404
2025-07-27 0.004516 0.008226 0.014737 0.027117 0.050377 0.092795 0.177378
2025-08-03 0.004190 0.007800 0.014280 0.026886 0.051147 0.096477 0.189202
2025-08-10 0.003932 0.007476 0.013976 0.026906 0.052375 0.101103 0.203279
2025-08-17 0.003643 0.007068 0.013480 0.026508 0.052748 0.104097 0.214359
2025-08-24 0.003479 0.006885 0.013394 0.026899 0.054709 0.110363 0.232729
2025-08-31 0.003259 0.006574 0.013031 0.026703 0.055451 0.114229 0.246415
2025-09-07 0.003163 0.006503 0.013136 0.027466 0.058242 0.122537 0.270453
2025-09-14 0.002899 0.006064 0.012461 0.026539 0.057367 0.123055 0.277367
2025-09-21 0.002714 0.005775 0.012073 0.026187 0.057693 0.126157 0.290366
2025-09-28 0.002493 0.005392 0.011458 0.025289 0.056736 0.126358 0.296687